Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 10.143120 11.887778 13.801012 16.049236 18.612885 21.439083 24.784350
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 7.506069 9.884684 12.760109 16.465440 21.084084 26.619620 33.720902
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 5.865398 8.548391 12.074368 16.982892 23.563689 31.996699 43.520419
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 4.528456 7.237778 11.075702 16.794258 24.958417 36.030641 51.979120
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 3.453970 6.021364 9.920895 16.103202 25.441432 38.756037 58.834875
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 2.704271 5.113455 9.016313 15.562955 25.963268 41.461928 65.788356
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 2.259329 4.597036 8.608230 15.678534 27.412829 45.573319 75.060451
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 1.854290 4.056168 8.052625 15.441634 28.225878 48.728109 83.086529
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 1.671449 3.888963 8.109240 16.229046 30.767796 54.770920 96.038987
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 1.460019 3.616811 7.922139 16.540367 32.501617 59.611309 107.391313
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 1.255673 3.313198 7.620466 16.585982 33.746804 63.704943 117.779405
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 1.084986 3.045211 7.342457 16.628437 34.967755 67.821692 128.461289
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 1.027757 3.040229 7.626971 17.853389 38.580174 76.508615 147.802860
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.935902 2.930755 7.671365 18.598642 41.360278 83.951274 165.547941
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.850414 2.817943 7.689855 19.290116 44.101199 91.531522 184.066330
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.725672 2.565358 7.338072 19.123664 45.084234 95.900254 197.041691
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.591236 2.245553 6.762405 18.365539 44.745504 97.701981 205.360707
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.487103 1.985798 6.286979 17.765302 44.662451 99.965198 214.662921
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.427953 1.854386 6.125915 17.897558 46.188470 105.525377 230.639369
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.363548 1.683909 5.823783 17.632360 46.784962 109.226901 243.193095
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.343033 1.667967 5.962311 18.517123 50.109482 118.788896 267.947954
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.309256 1.590262 5.902526 18.866772 52.198448 125.874303 288.081723
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.272009 1.485849 5.740971 18.918031 53.573038 131.520887 305.593959